Editing Openai/6938382f-f9e4-8003-a158-6d812c1bce84 (section)

==== 5. Detection of common errors and fallacies ====

===== 5.1 Misuse of error propagation / confidence intervals =====
* Random-walk propagation of a structural bias: Systematic LWCF bias is treated as a per-year independent uncertainty. That’s akin to saying: “My thermometer is off by ±1°C, therefore after 100 measurements my uncertainty in the final average is ±10°C,” which is not how systematic error works.
* Ignoring constraints from model behavior: If ±15°C uncertainty were real, ensembles under fixed forcing would quickly diverge to wildly different climates. They don’t.

Even Roy Spencer (who is generally skeptical of mainstream climate sensitivity estimates) published a detailed critique arguing Frank’s treatment of cloud-error propagation is not valid and leads to absurd consequences. drroyspencer.com<ref>{{cite web|title=drroyspencer.com|url=https://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/09/additional-comments-on-the-frank-2019-propagation-of-error-paper/|publisher=drroyspencer.com|access-date=2025-12-10}}</ref>

===== 5.2 Confusion between precision and bias =====

Frank is correct that:
* Model spread around an ensemble mean is a measure of precision, not necessarily accuracy. Propagation_of_Error_and_the_Re…

But:
* He then effectively treats calibration RMSE as a “resolution limit”, and asserts that any signal smaller than that must be unresolvable. - In reality, a model can have a constant bias in cloud radiative effect and still simulate changes over time with useful precision.

===== 5.3 Overstated error propagation vs independent measurements =====

The claim that a ±4 W/m² LWCF error “defeats any measure of GCM statistical merit” and “vitiates both the predictive validity” of all projections Propagation_of_Error_and_the_Re…

 is not consistent with:
* The fact that net TOA energy imbalance from models is constrained to order ~0.5–1 W/m² over the historical period (comparable to observed ocean heat uptake). IPCC<ref>{{cite web|title=IPCC|url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter09_FINAL.pdf|publisher=ipcc.ch|access-date=2025-12-10}}</ref>
* The observation that model ensembles reproduce many large-scale features of observed warming patterns, not just global means.

===== 5.4 Potential strawmen / category errors =====
* Treating the lack of Taylor-Kuyatt-style error propagation in GCM evaluations as if no serious uncertainty analysis is done at all, which is not true. IPCC<ref>{{cite web|title=IPCC|url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter09_FINAL.pdf|publisher=ipcc.ch|access-date=2025-12-10}}</ref>
* Interpreting ensemble spread only as precision, ignoring that spread is widely discussed as a proxy for model structural uncertainty in IPCC reports (with caveats). IPCC<ref>{{cite web|title=IPCC|url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter09_FINAL.pdf|publisher=ipcc.ch|access-date=2025-12-10}}</ref>