Editing Openai/69109937-2170-8005-9304-da49840bb5b9 (section)

==== Purely qualitative probabilities (my view, not gospel): ====
* Worst case (0–2 USD): maybe 25–30 % - Manufacturing + commercial execution can still go wrong; dilution risk is real despite current cash pile.
* Base case (5–12 USD): roughly 40–50 % - Gradual, messy but essentially successful ramp, valuation multiple compresses, business becomes real but not spectacular.
* Best case (20–40 USD+): maybe 20–30 % - Requires that AI optical demand actually explodes and POET captures a meaningful share while keeping its tech moat and manufacturing advantage.

If you put those together, you get a very skewed payoff structure:
* Left tail: you can lose most of your capital.
* Right tail: you can plausibly get a multi-bagger.
* Middle: a lot of paths where you end up with modest gains or even flat performance while the company slowly de-risks.

That’s exactly why some analyses call it a “small, speculative shot” rather than a core holding. Seeking Alpha<ref>{{cite web|title=Seeking Alpha|url=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4826663-poet-technologies-is-worth-a-small-speculative-shot|publisher=Seeking Alpha|access-date=2025-11-10}}</ref>

From a critical perspective, I’d actually challenge the typical retail narrative here:
* Many people talk as if the best case is the default,
* But the current valuation already assumes some success; there is not much margin of safety if execution slips or AI capex cools.

If you want, next step we could do is:
* Take one of these scenarios and build a rough revenue → margin → market-cap → share-price table, so you can see how sensitive the outcome is to just one or two assumptions (e.g. “share of AI transceiver TAM” and “EV/Sales multiple”). That usually helps to keep one’s own optimism in check.

Recent POET stock & financing coverageSeeking AlphaPOET Technologies Is Worth A Small, Speculative Shot (NASDAQ:POET)Oct 9, 2025<ref>{{cite web|title=Seeking AlphaPOET Technologies Is Worth A Small, Speculative Shot (NASDAQ:POET)Oct 9, 2025|url=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4826663-poet-technologies-is-worth-a-small-speculative-shot|publisher=Seeking AlphaPOET Technologies Is Worth A Small, Speculative Shot (NASDAQ:POET)Oct 9, 2025|access-date=2025-11-10}}</ref>Yahoo FinanzenIs Poet Technologies Stock a Buy?Oct 9, 2025<ref>{{cite web|title=Yahoo FinanzenIs Poet Technologies Stock a Buy?Oct 9, 2025|url=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/poet-technologies-stock-buy-110000055.html|publisher=Yahoo FinanzenIs Poet Technologies Stock a Buy?Oct 9, 2025|access-date=2025-11-10}}</ref>TrefisPOET Technologies Stock: Buy This Under The Radar AI Play?28 days ago<ref>{{cite web|title=TrefisPOET Technologies Stock: Buy This Under The Radar AI Play?28 days ago|url=https://www.trefis.com/stock/poet/articles/579030/poet-technologies-stock-buy-this-under-the-radar-ai-play/2025-10-14|publisher=TrefisPOET Technologies Stock: Buy This Under The Radar AI Play?28 days ago|date=2025-10-14|access-date=2025-11-10}}</ref>Investing News Network (INN)POET Technologies Announces Closing of US$150 Million Oversubscribed Registered Direct Offering of Common Shares7 days ago<ref>{{cite web|title=Investing News Network (INN)POET Technologies Announces Closing of US$150 Million Oversubscribed Registered Direct Offering of Common Shares7 days ago|url=https://investingnews.com/poet-technologies-announces-closing-of-us-150-million-oversubscribed-registered-direct-offering-of-common-shares/|publisher=Investing News Network (INN)POET Technologies Announces Closing of US$150 Million Oversubscribed Registered Direct Offering of Common Shares7 days ago|access-date=2025-11-10}}</ref>Stock TitanPOET Technologies (NASDAQ: POET) prices $150M registered direct; cash to exceed $300M14 days ago<ref>{{cite web|title=Stock TitanPOET Technologies (NASDAQ: POET) prices $150M registered direct; cash to exceed $300M14 days ago|url=https://www.stocktitan.net/news/POET/poet-technologies-announces-pricing-of-us-150-million-oversubscribed-5ptuwn4q6fz4.html|publisher=Stock TitanPOET Technologies (NASDAQ: POET) prices $150M registered direct; cash to exceed $300M14 days ago|access-date=2025-11-10}}</ref>ForbesIs POET Technologies Stock An Under The Radar AI Play?21 days ago<ref>{{cite web|title=ForbesIs POET Technologies Stock An Under The Radar AI Play?21 days ago|url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2025/10/15/is-poet-technologies-stock-an-under-the-radar-ai-play/|publisher=ForbesIs POET Technologies Stock An Under The Radar AI Play?21 days ago|date=2025-10-15|access-date=2025-11-10}}</ref>sherwood.newsPOET Technologies is the newest low-price stock seeing record volumes and call activity thanks to retail tradersOct 9, 2025<ref>{{cite web|title=sherwood.newsPOET Technologies is the newest low-price stock seeing record volumes and call activity thanks to retail tradersOct 9, 2025|url=https://sherwood.news/markets/poet-technologies-is-the-newest-low-price-stock-seeing-record-volumes-and/|publisher=sherwood.newsPOET Technologies is the newest low-price stock seeing record volumes and call activity thanks to retail tradersOct 9, 2025|access-date=2025-11-10}}</ref>