Editing Openai/67b1fe1c-af00-8007-af18-a36e65791357 (section)

==== 1. 日本央行貨幣政策變化 ====

日本央行（BOJ）過去多年一直實行超寬鬆貨幣政策，包括零利率甚至負利率政策（NIRP）以及大規模資產購買和收益率曲線控制（YCC）。隨著近期通膨率接近目標並且薪資出現上升跡象，BOJ開始暗示將結束超寬鬆政策。市場普遍預期央行將逐步退出負利率並進入緩慢的升息週期am.jpmorgan.com<ref>{{cite web|title=am.jpmorgan.com|url=https://am.jpmorgan.com/tw/en/asset-management/institutional/insights/market-insights/market-updates/on-the-minds-of-investors/will-the-bank-of-japan-derail-the-japanese-equity-bull-run/#:~:text=,stronger%20yen%20should%20be%20manageable|publisher=am.jpmorgan.com|access-date=2025-11-10}}</ref>。事實上，BOJ已經在2024年調升政策利率至0.25%（為2008年以來新高）northerntrust.com<ref>{{cite web|title=northerntrust.com|url=https://www.northerntrust.com/middle-east/insights-research/2024/weekly-economic-commentary/bank-of-japans-hawkish-tilt#:~:text=Last%20week%2C%20the%20Bank%20of,drawn%20the%20ire%20of%20markets|publisher=northerntrust.com|access-date=2025-11-10}}</ref>。這表明未來幾年進一步升息是可能的，但會以漸進方式進行，以觀察通脹與經濟反應。

日本央行政策轉向對日圓價值具有重大影響。一般而言，貨幣緊縮傾向支撐日圓升值：當BOJ暗示或實施升息，日圓匯率往往走強，因為日美利差縮小使套利交易平倉，資金回流日圓northerntrust.com<ref>{{cite web|title=northerntrust.com|url=https://www.northerntrust.com/middle-east/insights-research/2024/weekly-economic-commentary/bank-of-japans-hawkish-tilt#:~:text=The%20Japanese%20yen%20,%E2%80%9D|publisher=northerntrust.com|access-date=2025-11-10}}</ref>。例如，2024年7月央行意外升息後，日圓迅速升值至年內高點，許多以日圓為融資的套利部位被迫平倉northerntrust.com<ref>{{cite web|title=northerntrust.com|url=https://www.northerntrust.com/middle-east/insights-research/2024/weekly-economic-commentary/bank-of-japans-hawkish-tilt#:~:text=The%20Japanese%20yen%20,%E2%80%9D|publisher=northerntrust.com|access-date=2025-11-10}}</ref>northerntrust.com<ref>{{cite web|title=northerntrust.com|url=https://www.northerntrust.com/middle-east/insights-research/2024/weekly-economic-commentary/bank-of-japans-hawkish-tilt#:~:text=But%20when%20Japanese%20interest%20rates,fell%20to%20around%20%246%20billion|publisher=northerntrust.com|access-date=2025-11-10}}</ref>。相反，持續寬鬆則令日圓承壓：2022年美聯儲激進升息而BOJ堅持零利率，導致美元與日圓利差拉大，日圓兌美元匯率一度貶破150foreignpolicy.com<ref>{{cite web|title=foreignpolicy.com|url=https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/11/29/bank-of-japan-yen-depreciation-currency-inflation/#:~:text=The%20core%20policy%20issue%20underlying,percent%20so%20far%20this%20year|publisher=foreignpolicy.com|date=2022-11-29|access-date=2025-11-10}}</ref>foreignpolicy.com<ref>{{cite web|title=foreignpolicy.com|url=https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/11/29/bank-of-japan-yen-depreciation-currency-inflation/#:~:text=On%20Oct,rate%20eclipsed%20150%20to%201|publisher=foreignpolicy.com|date=2022-11-29|access-date=2025-11-10}}</ref>。因此，若未來BOJ順利結束超寬鬆並進入升息軌道，日圓料得到支撐；但若日本通脹回落、央行被迫維持或重新寬鬆，日圓可能延續偏弱走勢。