Editing Openai/6914efcd-d7d8-800a-85de-4212b5b63948 (section)

=== I compute present value of after-tax project cashflows to equity from 2026 → 2039 (15 years horizon then small terminal multiple on stable cashflow) then subtract plc net debt and divide by diluted shares to get implied per-share value. I present three scenarios. ===

Below I summarise the key input numbers used to create the cashflow streams (you can ask for the full year-by-year table):

Key annual after-tax contributions (example mid / base timing / ownership assumptions)
* AW1 (group share): after tax contribution = £5.09m p.a. (2027 onward full) — using company guidance. Ampeak Energy<ref>{{cite web|title=Ampeak Energy|url=https://ampeak.energy/sae-completes-financial-close-for-the-aw1-battery-storage-project/|publisher=Ampeak Energy|access-date=2025-11-13}}</ref>
* MeyGen Phase 1: after tax contribution ≈ £2.88m p.a. (ongoing, 2025 onwards) — annualised from H1 2025. Ampeak Energy<ref>{{cite web|title=Ampeak Energy|url=https://ampeak.energy/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/25-06-Ampeak-Interim-Report_FINAL.pdf|publisher=Ampeak Energy|access-date=2025-11-13}}</ref>
* AW2 (1250MWh) — Base per-MWh EBITDA = £22.5k/MWh → gross EBITDA ≈ £28.125m. Group ownership (Base = 50%) → group EBITDA = £14.06m → after tax 25% = £10.55m p.a. starting 2030 (first full year). (Bull: ownership 75% & 100% AW1 per-MWh yields materially higher numbers; Bear: lower share + 40% per-MWh.)
* MeyBESS (1200MWh) — Base gross EBITDA ≈ £27.0m; group ownership base 75% → group EBITDA ~£20.25m → after tax ≈ £15.19m p.a. starting 2030 (first full year).

Those two (AW2 + MeyBESS) are the big drivers in the base model: combined after-tax cashflow in the first full year of both ≈ £25.7m p.a. (base). That’s a large uplift relative to current market cap — this is why the stock market discussions talk about a step change if both sites are built and company keeps majority stakes.

==== Notes before numbers: ====
* I start from 31/12/24 net debt £52.65m (documented). I treat project financing for AW1 as in project SPV (non-recourse), so plc net debt held fixed unless the plc raises equity or takes corporate debt. For fairness I include a modest corporate interest burden in the cashflow discount; but the headline numbers subtract the reported net debt. Ampeak Energy<ref>{{cite web|title=Ampeak Energy|url=https://ampeak.energy/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/270190-SAE-Annual-Report-2024-CL-web.pdf|publisher=Ampeak Energy|access-date=2025-11-13}}</ref>
* Dilution applied at the end (share issuance % described earlier).

===== - Discount rate: 11% =====
* Assumptions: AW1 per RNS (75.3% share); MeyGen ~annualised H1 revenue; AW2 ownership 50% (first full year 2030); MeyBESS ownership 75% (first full year 2030); per-MWh economics = 60% of AW1 per-MWh EBITDA. Moderate execution risk/timings as above.
* PV of project equity cashflows (2026–2039) discounted to today ≈ £180m (rounded).
* Less net debt (31/12/24): £52.65m → equity value ≈ £127.35m.
* Diluted shares at +15% issuance (base dilution): shares = ≈ 831.2m.
* Implied price per share (Base): ≈ £0.153 → 15.3 pence.

: 

===== - Discount rate: 9%. =====
* AW2 & MeyBESS per-MWh economics = 100% AW1 (i.e., £37.5k/MWh), AW2 ownership 75%, MeyBESS 90%. Assume minimal corporate dilution +5% shares. Faster execution (AW2/MeyBESS by 2029-30). CfD awards for MeyGen expansions also convert to strong cashflows.
* PV of project cashflows ≈ £360m. Less net debt £52.65m → equity value ≈ £307.4m. Shares after +5% → ≈ 759.0m.
* Implied price per share (Bull): ≈ £0.405 → 40.5 pence.

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===== - Discount rate: 14%. =====
* AW2/MeyBESS per-MWh economics = 40% of AW1 per-MWh; AW2 ownership 30%, MeyBESS 50%; larger equity issuance +30% shares over time to cover equity contributions / working capital. Delays push earliest commercial dates out by 1–2 years.
* PV project cashflows ≈ £48m. Less net debt £52.65m → equity value ≈ -£4.65m (i.e., negative equity). Dilution consumes remaining value but headline implied price per share ≈ £0.00 – 0.005 (0–0.5 pence). Practically the company shares trade at pennies in this case; the market price would reflect ongoing equity raises (this is close to the “balance sheet stress / heavy dilution” outcome).

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