Editing Openai/69434f20-ed90-800d-ab60-60312c9de3dd (section)

=== User: Loctarjay quotes Captain Blue "All the evidence and the odds support me every time" ===
Loctarjay quotes Captain Blue "All the evidence and the odds support me every time"
To which Loctarjay responds:
"It never has and it never will

In fact, the more often you deny being wrong in all of your videos, the more unlikely it becomes for you to know wvat you're talking about and the more likely it becomes that you are just fabricating lies all the time IN ORDER FOR YOU TO HELP HIDE CHEATERS in plain sight

The larger the sample rate I take from YOUR LIVE STREAMS, the more unlikely it is for you to be right"

Captain Blue quotes Loctarjay "Again....
Completely and utterly irrelevant, because it is a confirmation biased question....."
To which Captain Blue responds:
"Then explain how it is confirmation bias? It's just asking for the rates if that were true.. All evidence supports high cheater rates.. You have nothing to support a low cheater rate.,

Odds of being killed by a cheater every game (20‑player solo lobby, 30% global cheater prevalence)
Let’s formalize this:

Step 1: Expected cheaters per lobby
* 20 players total, you are legit → 19 opponents.
* Global prevalence = 30%.
* Expected cheaters = 19\cdot 0.30=5.7\approx 6.
* Distribution: usually 5–7 cheaters in a lobby, sometimes 3–8.

Step 2: Encounter probability
If you meet ~2 opponents per match:
* Probability at least one of those 2 is a cheater: 51% chance
* So half your matches involve fighting at least one cheater.

Step 3: Killer probability (conditional on your skill filter)
Because you beat most legit players, your deaths cluster against cheaters:
* No coordination: ~50–60% of deaths are to cheaters.
* Soft coordination (cheaters avoid each other, third‑party): ~65–75%.
* Hard teaming (wallhack + code‑name coordination): ~80–90%.

Step 4: Per‑match odds of being killed by a cheater
* If you die once per match: odds ≈ 50–90% depending on coordination.

Direct takeaway
* With ~6 cheaters per 20‑player lobby, the baseline chance of being killed by a cheater is about 50–60% per game.
* If cheaters coordinate (code‑names, wallhacks, avoiding each other), that rises to 65–90% per game.

"Just to confirm this is based on a 30% cheater rate in the global community and not 30% cheaters in a match?"

Yes — all the calculations I’ve been giving you are based on 30% of the global player population being cheaters (300k concurrent Steam users), not that every single match is fixed at 30% cheaters.
Here’s the distinction:
• Global prevalence (your assumption): 30% of the entire ARC playerbase cheats.
• Lobby sampling: Each match is a random draw from that population. On average, about 30% of the players in any given lobby will be cheaters, but the actual number fluctuates (sometimes 3, sometimes 8, usually ~6 in a 20‑player lobby).
• Encounter odds: When I said “51% chance at least one of the 2 players you meet is a cheater,” that was derived from the global prevalence of 30% applied to your encounters, not assuming a fixed 30% in every lobby.
So yes — everything is grounded in the idea that 30% of the overall community cheats, and then we model what that means for your individual matches and encounters.
Would you like me to show you a binomial probability table (0–19 cheaters in a lobby) so you can see the exact distribution of cheater counts per match under the 30% global prevalence assumption? That would make the “not always exactly 6, but usually around 6” point crystal clear."

Loctarjay quotes Captain Blue "Then explain how it is confirmation bias? It's just asking for the rates if that were true.. All evidence supports high cheater rates.. You have nothing to support a low cheater rate."
To which Loctarjay responds:
"I dont need evidence of any cheater-rate...
I need to calculate whether or not is it statistically possible for you to be right as often as YOU CLAIM to be.....

Everything else is completely irrelevant....

You have yet to ACTUALLY admit you were wrong in your cheater accusations...
Which means YOU CLAIM TO HAVE a 100% cheater accusation accuracy rate...
So calculating how likely you are to run into cheaters at the rate of your player-encounters is the only thing I need to do...

YOU CLAIM YOU CAN CATCH CHEATERS....
I can counter argue (roughly) 90% of your videos by using NORMAL INGAME MECHANICS....
This means that your "evidence" of cheating is INSUFFICIENT....
You then claiming "nuh uh, i am right" would only further provide evidence that you are supporting cheaters ans helping them hide in plain sight...
YOU even want to argue you can spot "subtle cheating", and every single time you die in Arc Raiders on the 2nd December 2025, you blindly just screamed "cheater" with the exception of 1 time where you HAD NO IDEA, YET DESPERATELY NEEDED THE ENEMY TO CHEAT"

Captain Blue quotes Loctarjay "....I need to calculate whether or not is it statistically possible for you to be right as often as YOU CLAIM to be...."
To which Captain Blue responds: "But you don't have a number for the amount players cheating.... So you can't produce a number. If you put in 0% cheaters because there is no data then there will 0% chance I would run into a cheater...

You need to input an amount of cheating... lol

You can't get any data out if you don't put any data in... lol"

Loctarjay quotes Captain Blue "Odds of being killed by a cheater every game (20‑player solo lobby, 30% global cheater prevalence)."
To which Loctarjay responds:
"Confirmation Bias Question, because you have 0 idea how the other players are moving around and you are NOT taking into account the amount of enemies you are meeting, neither taking into account the fact that you demand it must be "subtle"...
You are not even taking into account that there literally are Arcs flying around which can also spot the cheaters and alert them of their position, which would inform you of an enemy player in that general direction and thus allows you to avoid that direction....

Funny how you are keeping all that out of your delusional result...."