Editing Openai/6914efcd-d7d8-800a-85de-4212b5b63948 (section)

=== Short bullets first, then the cashflow picture used in the DCF. ===

Year 1 (end 2026) — near term
* AW1: reached financial close (Aug 2025). Construction underway; project close implies group will begin project commissioning in late 2026. Expect limited plc cashflow in Y1 (some project equity invested earlier; construction costs mostly financed via project financing). Ampeak Energy<ref>{{cite web|title=Ampeak Energy|url=https://ampeak.energy/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/25-06-Ampeak-Interim-Report_FINAL.pdf|publisher=Ampeak Energy|access-date=2025-11-13}}</ref>
* MeyGen: operational Phase 1 continues to contribute market revenue (H1 2025: 7.9 GWh / £3.2m). No material new CF in 2026 unless CfD start dates hit earlier. Ampeak Energy<ref>{{cite web|title=Ampeak Energy|url=https://ampeak.energy/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/25-06-Ampeak-Interim-Report_FINAL.pdf|publisher=Ampeak Energy|access-date=2025-11-13}}</ref>

Year 2 (end 2027)
* AW1 first full year of operation — guided average revenue ~£13m; group EBITDA contribution ~£6.78m (group). This materially improves group cashflow and frees plc to invest / repay corporate debt. Ampeak Energy<ref>{{cite web|title=Ampeak Energy|url=https://ampeak.energy/sae-completes-financial-close-for-the-aw1-battery-storage-project/|publisher=Ampeak Energy|access-date=2025-11-13}}</ref>
* Project-led leverage at group level likely falls relative to run-rate because AW1 cash will be mostly held in project SPV but equity distributions to group can begin per project agreements.

Year 5 (end 2030)
* AW2 and MeyBESS target connection 2029; first full year 2030. If timings hold, by year 5 the group should have AW1 (operational), MeyGen continuing, and AW2 + MeyBESS potentially ramping in — which would create step-change EBITDA if the company retains material economic interest. Risk to timing: National Grid connection reform and planning reviews remain a gating risk (company explicitly notes this). Ampeak Energy<ref>{{cite web|title=Ampeak Energy|url=https://ampeak.energy/investor-relations/company-documents/|publisher=Ampeak Energy|access-date=2025-11-13}}</ref>