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===== Define (using target LR 96% unless changed): ===== * Excess profit available for sharing in year yyy: EPy=max(0, 0.96Py−C~y)EP_y=\max(0,\ 0.96P_y-\tilde{C}_y)EPy=max(0, 0.96Py−C~y) * Excess loss above target in year yyy: ELy=max(0, C~y−0.96Py)EL_y=\max(0,\ \tilde{C}_y-0.96P_y)ELy=max(0, C~y−0.96Py) Let fund balance at start of year yyy be Fy−1F_{y-1}Fy−1, with F0=0F_0=0F0=0, cap Fmax=500,000F_{\max}=500{,}000Fmax=500,000. Use fund to offset bad years first: Uy=min(Fy−1, ELy)U_y=\min(F_{y-1},\ EL_y)Uy=min(Fy−1, ELy) Remaining excess loss borne by Green: ELynet=ELy−UyEL^{\text{net}}_y = EL_y - U_yELynet=ELy−Uy Then credit favorable-year share into the fund up to the cap: Deposity=min(EPy, Fmax−(Fy−1−Uy))\text{Deposit}_y = \min(EP_y,\ F_{\max}- (F_{y-1}-U_y))Deposity=min(EPy, Fmax−(Fy−1−Uy)) Any excess beyond filling the fund is distributed: Distributiony=EPy−Deposity\text{Distribution}_y = EP_y - \text{Deposit}_yDistributiony=EPy−Deposity Fund recursion: Fy=min(Fmax, Fy−1−Uy+Deposity)F_y = \min\big(F_{\max},\ F_{y-1}-U_y + \text{Deposit}_y\big)Fy=min(Fmax, Fy−1−Uy+Deposity) Green profit each year (profit-sharing with fund): * Green retains the target margin, less any net excess loss not covered by the fund: Πyfund=0.04Py−ELynet\Pi^{\text{fund}}_y = 0.04P_y - EL^{\text{net}}_yΠyfund=0.04Py−ELynet * If the policy terminates after 20X3, add the retained fund balance as additional profit: Πfund,total=∑yΠyfund+F20X3\Pi^{\text{fund,total}} = \sum_y \Pi^{\text{fund}}_y + F_{20X3}Πfund,total=y∑Πyfund+F20X3 Interpretation: reduces refund payouts in early good years, creates a buffer against future bad years, and (because Green keeps the balance at termination) materially improves Green’s expected value—though it may be viewed as less favorable/less transparent to the customer.
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