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Openai/69109937-2170-8005-9304-da49840bb5b9
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==== 2. Revised scenarios ==== ===== β« Scenario 1 β Execution drag / delayed adoption ===== Share price range: 2 β 5 USD Probability: β 25 % | Factor | Description | | ------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | Manufacturing yield | Ramp at Globetronics / NationGate slower than expected; coupling variation still 1β2 dB spread β low yield, high rework cost. | | Customer uptake | Luxshare & Mentech ship modest volumes, but 1.6 T & AI-fabric designs slip beyond 2028. | | Revenue (2028) | 60 β 90 M USD | | Gross margin | 25 β 30 % | | Valuation multiple | 4Γ Sales (disappointed market) | | Market cap | 240 β 360 M USD β 3 β 5 USD/share | Story: Technology works, but ramp inefficiency + tepid demand erode margins. Company survives (cash buffer helps) but re-rates downward; investors wait longer for payoff. ===== π Scenario 2 β Base-case scaling success ===== Share price range: 10 β 15 USD Probability: β 45 % | Factor | Description | | ------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | Manufacturing yield | Yields reach > 90 % by 2027; cost per engine falls > 30 %. | | Customer uptake | Luxshare, Mentech, FIT begin real production; Celestial AI integrates first clusters; early Sivers ELS deliveries. | | Revenue (2028) | 150 β 220 M USD | | Gross margin | 35 β 40 % | | Valuation multiple | 6 β 7Γ Sales | | Market cap | 1.0 β 1.5 B USD β 12 Β± 3 USD/share | Story: The company executes broadly on plan. Revenue curve looks healthy but not exponential. Institutions achieve roughly their target 2Γ return; POET becomes a profitable mid-tier photonics supplier. ===== π’ Scenario 3 β High-adoption / strategic winner ===== Share price range: 22 β 40 USD Probability: β 30 % | Factor | Description | | ------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | Manufacturing yield | Malaysian + SPX lines stable > 95 %; wafer-scale passive alignment proven. | | Customer uptake | Multiple Tier-1 AI hardware makers and transceiver OEMs adopt Optical Interposer at scale; Celestial AI or equivalent hyperscaler deployment triggers industry FOMO. | | Revenue (2028) | 300 β 450 M USD | | Gross margin | 40 β 45 % | | Valuation multiple | 8 Γ Sales | | Market cap | 2.4 β 3.6 B USD β 28 Β± 8 USD/share | Story: Passive alignment proves decisively cheaper; POET becomes a go-to engine supplier for AI and data-centre optics. Institutionsβ $7 entry looks brilliant (3β5Γ), retail sentiment euphoric.
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