Editing Openai/693a6e5e-1a04-8012-a8a7-a701feb20662 (section)

===== D) Scenario View – If They Change (or Don’t) =====

====== Scenario 1 – Business as Usual (BAU 2030) ======
* Code improves slowly (climate, compliance), transparency remains partial.
* Credo stays strong (research, innovation, economic impact).
* Rights improve modestly, but access & affordability remain big bottlenecks.

Indicative 2030 outcomes:
* Pillar averages rise by maybe +2–3 points.
* ERI increases slightly to ~0.85.
* U-Score moves into the low 70s: still “Advanced”, not fully “Optimised”.

====== Scenario 2 – Rights & Access Revolution ======

Harvard and Oxford decide that equity, access, and well-being are strategic priorities equal to rankings and research. They:
* Significantly expand need-based aid, living-cost support, and alternative pathways (online, hybrid, community-linked).
* Standardise and strengthen mental health and well-being systems, with real workload reforms.
* Give students/staff real voting power in key governance decisions.

Possible effects by ~2030:
* Rights pillar could jump from ~80–81 → 88–90.
* ERI (via fairness, agency, well-being) could rise to 0.88–0.90.
* Even with Code/ Credo roughly constant, U-Score could shift to mid–high 70s, near “optimised” territory.

====== Scenario 3 – Full Transparency & Historical Repair ======

Both institutions embrace radical transparency + active repair:
* Detailed public dashboards for funding, endowment allocation, COI declarations, misconduct handling, harassment case statistics.
* Clear plans and measurable steps on colonial/ historical harms, including scholarships, partnerships, and community projects.
* Open AI/data governance frameworks co-created with stakeholders.

Likely outcomes:
* Code pillar climbs from ~78–79 → 86+ (big uplift in transparency and trust).
* Rights also gets a boost (more justice, better expectation fulfilment).
* ERI moves up, as entropy from mistrust and hidden power structures drops.
* U-Score can realistically surpass 80, entering the “Optimised” band.