Editing Openai/69408f2e-3acc-800c-a0c5-7ab1f3f9f65c (section)

=== Assistant: Here’s a fact-based answer using available reporting, focused only on current operations — excluding future commitments… ===
Here’s a fact-based answer using available reporting, focused only on current operations — excluding future commitments, non-operating infrastructure, and capital investments — and trying to infer what OpenAI’s profitability today might look like.

==== Revenue levels (run rate): ====
* OpenAI’s annualized revenue reached roughly $10 billion by mid-2025 — almost doubling year-over-year. Reuters<ref>{{cite web|title=Reuters|url=https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/openais-annualized-revenue-hits-10-billion-up-55-billion-december-2024-2025-06-09/|publisher=reuters.com|access-date=2025-12-16}}</ref>
* First-half 2025: about $4.3 billion in sales, implying ~$8.6B annualized if trends hold. Financial Times<ref>{{cite web|title=Financial Times|url=https://www.ft.com/content/908dc05b-5fcd-456a-88a3-eba1f77d3ffd|publisher=Financial Times|access-date=2025-12-16}}</ref>

Revenue comes primarily from:
* ChatGPT subscriptions
* API usage
* Enterprise contracts (Not counting major deals like strategic investments.) Sacra<ref>{{cite web|title=Sacra|url=https://sacra.com/research/openai/|publisher=sacra.com|access-date=2025-12-16}}</ref>

==== Even ignoring future expansions, most publicly reported costs are still operational: ====

===== - In H1 2025, OpenAI spent $6.7B on R&D and nearly $2.5B on stock-based compensation. Sacra<ref>{{cite web|title=Sacra|url=https://sacra.com/research/openai/|publisher=sacra.com|access-date=2025-12-16}}</ref> =====
* Marketing and other costs have been significant too, and operating expense > revenue was reported. Financial Times<ref>{{cite web|title=Financial Times|url=https://www.ft.com/content/908dc05b-5fcd-456a-88a3-eba1f77d3ffd|publisher=Financial Times|access-date=2025-12-16}}</ref>

===== - Some reporting cites operating losses of ~$7.8 B in the first half of 2025 — even before big capital expansions are factored in. Reddit<ref>{{cite web|title=Reddit|url=https://www.reddit.com//r/mlscaling/comments/1nucdh9|publisher=reddit.com|access-date=2025-12-16}}</ref> =====
* Other analyses project net losses continuing into coming years. Asian Fin<ref>{{cite web|title=Asian Fin|url=https://www.asianfin.com/articles/89369|publisher=Asian Fin|access-date=2025-12-16}}</ref>

This means operational costs currently exceed revenue.

==== Given the reporting: ====

===== - ~$8.6–10 B (annualized from first half 2025). Reuters<ref>{{cite web|title=Reuters|url=https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/openais-annualized-revenue-hits-10-billion-up-55-billion-december-2024-2025-06-09/|publisher=reuters.com|access-date=2025-12-16}}</ref> =====

===== - Just in R&D + stock comp + marketing in H1 2025 totals ~$11.6 B. Sacra<ref>{{cite web|title=Sacra|url=https://sacra.com/research/openai/|publisher=sacra.com|access-date=2025-12-16}}</ref> =====
* That doesn’t count other operating costs (infrastructure run costs, support, sales, cloud revenue shares, etc.).

===== If we strip out only future expansions and capital projects, we still see that: =====

: 

This is consistent with reporting that:
* OpenAI has not yet turned a profit. AP News<ref>{{cite web|title=AP News|url=https://apnews.com/article/53dffc56355460a232439c76d1ccf22b|publisher=AP News|access-date=2025-12-16}}</ref>
* The company is projected to continue operating at a loss until as late as 2029. Hawkinsight<ref>{{cite web|title=Hawkinsight|url=https://www.hawkinsight.com/en/article/openai-forecfasted-to-be-profitable-until-2029|publisher=hawkinsight.com|access-date=2025-12-16}}</ref>

==== Some commentary suggests if you exclude certain costs — such as heavy R&D or model training bills — then operational margins could look better. AiCoin<ref>{{cite web|title=AiCoin|url=https://www.aicoin.com/en/article/422837|publisher=aicoin.com|access-date=2025-12-16}}</ref> ====

But mainstream reporting and internal estimates point to:
* Substantial operational losses today, even without counting future infrastructure build-outs.
* Heavy spend on R&D (which is operational today, not future only).
* Continued losses projected for years based on current financial documents. Hawkinsight<ref>{{cite web|title=Hawkinsight|url=https://www.hawkinsight.com/en/article/openai-forecfasted-to-be-profitable-until-2029|publisher=hawkinsight.com|access-date=2025-12-16}}</ref>

So:

: 

==== Excluding future capital projects and infrastructure under construction: ====
* Revenue run-rate ≈ $8.6–10 billion per year based on mid-2025 trends. Reuters<ref>{{cite web|title=Reuters|url=https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/openais-annualized-revenue-hits-10-billion-up-55-billion-december-2024-2025-06-09/|publisher=reuters.com|access-date=2025-12-16}}</ref>
* Operating costs (R&D, compensation, marketing) appear to exceed that revenue. Sacra<ref>{{cite web|title=Sacra|url=https://sacra.com/research/openai/|publisher=sacra.com|access-date=2025-12-16}}</ref>
* Net result: OpenAI is currently not profitable on a standalone operating basis, and losses persist even without including future infrastructure build-out costs. Hawkinsight<ref>{{cite web|title=Hawkinsight|url=https://www.hawkinsight.com/en/article/openai-forecfasted-to-be-profitable-until-2029|publisher=hawkinsight.com|access-date=2025-12-16}}</ref>

If you want, I can break this down into infrastructure vs. non-infrastructure cost categories, or estimate a hypothetical profit margin if they slashed specific cost lines (like R&D or free tiers). Just say so!