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Openai/691718ed-7ba4-8006-96d5-a66e0d9678fe
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=== Assistant: 你前面舉的例子其實已經是 1000 名嬰兒的情境了 😅(520 vs 480、600 vs 400、532 vs 468 都是以 1000 個新生兒為樣本)。 === 你前面舉的例子其實已經是 1000 名嬰兒的情境了 😅(520 vs 480、600 vs 400、532 vs 468 都是以 1000 個新生兒為樣本)。 我猜你的意思可能是: 👉「如果我們再增加樣本數,例如 2000、5000、10000 名嬰兒,那麼在相同顯著水準 α=0.05\alpha = 0.05α=0.05 下,拒絕虛無假設所需的男女差距會變化嗎?」 ==== - 當樣本數 nnn 增加時,標準差 σ=np(1−p)\sigma = \sqrt{np(1-p)}σ=np(1−p) 也會變大,但相對於樣本數的比例差會變小。 ==== * 這代表:樣本數越大,我們對「真實出生率是不是等於 0.5」的判斷越精準。 * 結果就是:只要有一點點差異,在大樣本下也可能被檢測出顯著差異。 ==== 我們可以用「臨界值」來比較: ==== * n=1000n = 1000n=1000:拒絕區在 ≤468 或 ≥532(差距 ≈ 32)。 * 如果 n=2000n = 2000n=2000:拒絕區會縮小,大約只要差距 ≈ 45–46 就足以顯著(比例差約 2.3%,比 1000 人時的 3.2% 還小)。 * 如果 n=10000n = 10000n=10000:拒絕區更縮小,可能只要差距 ≈ 160 左右(比例差 1.6% 就夠了)。 ==== - 樣本少 → 要看到很大的差距才有說服力。 ==== * 樣本多 → 就算差一點點,也能顯著(因為「隨機誤差」的可能性變得極低)。 這就是為什麼在大規模人口數據裡,常常可以檢測出「非常微小卻顯著」的差異。 要不要我幫你實際算一算 2000 名嬰兒的「臨界值」(p=0.05 時的男嬰數上下限)給你做比較?
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