Editing Openai/69439ed2-a934-800b-ad0f-4b1320a3650b (section)

==== A demonstrative analysis must state what would count as confirmation. ====

Strong evidence would look like:
* documented procurement failures explicitly attributed to blocked payments, shipping refusals, or supplier withdrawal due to sanctions compliance risk
* clear temporal alignment: policy tightening → procurement disruption → measurable clinical supply gaps
* third-party corroboration (PAHO procurement notes, NGO logistics reports, manufacturer compliance statements)

We do have credible reporting that Cuba’s health system is facing shortages of medicines and diagnostics in the context of the outbreak. El País<ref>{{cite web|title=El País|url=https://elpais.com/america/2025-12-06/nos-estamos-muriendo-cuba-se-hunde-en-una-gran-crisis-sanitaria-entre-falta-de-medicinas-y-diagnosticos-falsos.html|publisher=El País|date=2025-12-06|access-date=2025-12-18}}</ref>

But note the methodological discipline: those shortages alone do not prove sanctions are the primary cause. They establish the clinical scarcity condition; they do not, by themselves, allocate causal weight.