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==== Slide Title: ==== “From Washington to Tokyo? How the Global Operating System is Quietly Rebalancing” # Context: The Global Operating System (GOS) * For 70+ years, Washington has been the de facto “OS core” of the world: - US dollar, deep capital markets, security guarantees, tech. * Today, the system is going multi-core: - US (monetary + hard power), - Europe (regulation + climate rules), - Japan / East Asia Shield (production + tech-security backbone). # Three core nodes in 2025 * United States – “Monetary Kernel in Band C” - Still dominates finance and reserves (USD), - But governance volatility and polarization rising. * Europe – “Front-Line Firewall, Overloaded” - Holds the line on Ukraine and Russia, - Juggles energy transition, climate targets, and internal politics, - Strong at rules and standards, but burdened at its eastern frontier. * Japan / East Asia Shield – “Operational Backbone” - Central to chips, advanced manufacturing, secure supply chains, - Trusted by both US and EU, - Emerging as an economic-security hub, not just an exporter. # Why the OS tilt favors Tokyo over Brussels * Europe - Must spend its “energy and attention budget” on war adjacency (Russia/Ukraine), - Slow fiscal + defense integration, - Likely to remain a regional OS for norms and regulation, not the global core. * Japan / East Asia Shield - Farther from the Russia front, - Actively designing strategic autonomy + strategic indispensability, - If this region fails, global supply chains stall; if it holds, trade survives. - That makes Tokyo a critical co-architect of any workable GOS. # What this means for business leaders * Treat Japan/East Asia Shield as a primary OS node, not a peripheral market: - Anchor long-term supply chains here. - Participate in economic-security partnerships (chips, minerals, energy, logistics). * See Europe as the rules & risk zone: - Watch EU regulation, climate policy, and Ukraine spillovers. * Assume US remains the financial core but with governance noise: - Stress-test exposure to US policy swings and debt/interest-rate shocks. # Key question for 2027 : (That’s the hypothesis this slide is putting on the table.)
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