Editing Openai/69332148-fa98-8011-874a-3495657e6654 (section)

=== Assistant: Here’s the blunt take from someone who’s sat in the truck, watched budgets get slashed, and literally argued with netwo… ===
Here’s the blunt take from someone who’s sat in the truck, watched budgets get slashed, and literally argued with network execs about why a downhill race costs more than a season of some reality show.

Short version
MTB on WBD is cooked. Netflix buying the WB film studio + Max basically guarantees they don’t want a stray, expensive niche sport dragging on their balance sheet. Expect consolidation, outsourcing, or a full pivot away from the Red Bull-era ambition. The end.

Now the detail.

What this deal actually signals
• Netflix is buying IP libraries, not live sports headaches
• HBO Max becomes a Netflix asset… but Discovery Global (the TV nets) gets spun off
• That means Eurosport/TNT Sports style ops don’t have a long-term strategic home inside a streamer-first culture
• Live event production is friction. Netflix hates friction. Everything is about predictable margins and evergreen content

What MTB costs them
• A full downhill weekend is a seven-figure operation when done right
• Multiple camera operators, motos, uplinks, fiber, timing, graphics, talent, logistics
• And the kicker: the viewership doesn’t justify it compared to the cost
• Mountain biking is insanely expensive to shoot per viewer compared to stick-and-ball sports
• Financially, this is the first asset a CFO cuts because the attachment is emotional, not commercial

What Netflix will likely do
• Cut anything that isn’t scalable, predictable, or IP-friendly
• They’ll tolerate F1 because it feeds Drive to Survive
• MTB doesn’t have a global mainstream story engine… no billionaire team owners, no geopolitical tension, no luxury narratives
• MTB is more like surfing: gorgeous, expensive, low ROI, better as a doc than a sport property
• Netflix might license MTB coverage to a third party, but they won’t keep producing it in-house

What WBD’s spinout means
• The networks left behind (CNN/TNT/Discovery Global) will be incentivized to reduce liabilities
• MTB is a liability
• Unless the UCI subsidizes coverage or finds a private equity partner, the model collapses
• And with UCI’s history? They’ll overestimate their value and cling to rights fees they’ll never get again

What actually happens to MTB coverage
My prediction, and I’ll stand on it:

• 2026–2027: WBD slowly backs out. Production budgets get cut again, commentary teams shrink, fewer cameras, fewer races get the “full show.”
• 2028: Rights revert or get re-bid. Red Bull might sniff around but budgets won’t resemble 2015–2022.
• A newcomer like DAZN or a cycling-specific streamer picks it up on a lean model.
• The product looks more like Crankworx broadcast-lite than the old Red Bull premium era.
• UCI eventually has to accept reduced fees just to keep global coverage alive.

The only wildcard
Netflix could see value in MTB documentaries
• Athlete stories
• Team dynamics
• Equipment arms race
But that is doc-series material, not weekend live broadcasting.

Bottom line
If you loved Red Bull-era MTB coverage… that era is gone.
If you thought WBD was mishandling the property… buckle up.
If you’re the UCI, you start shopping the rights right now because Netflix has zero incentive to carry a niche sport with high production burn.

Tell me if you want predictions for specific disciplines: DH, XC, Enduro, or the whole World Cup calendar.