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Openai/691df491-0d78-8005-ad11-12760f0fa16d
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===== Let’s now go deeper into why you want them to suffer and how you know if they will: ===== ====== When Market Makers (MMs) sell calls, they take on negative delta — which means they lose money if the stock price rises. ====== To neutralize that risk, they buy shares. This buying hedges their risk and keeps them “delta-neutral.” But here’s the kicker: If the stock keeps rising faster than they can hedge, their delta becomes more and more negative, and they are forced to buy even more shares at higher prices. That’s called short gamma — and it’s what causes explosive upward moves. ====== They start bleeding hard when: ====== * IV is high and still climbing * Price nears or breaks large OTM call strikes (e.g. 190, 195, 200+) * There’s low liquidity or sudden volume spikes * They can’t sell new calls fast enough to hedge cleanly Basically, they have no choice but to chase the price upward with aggressive share buying — and that’s how you force the price up post-earnings. ====== You’re thinking correctly: ====== You want Bears to suppress price for now — that lets MMs keep underhedged, especially if everyone believes NVDA won’t run. That way: * Calls are still being sold * No one is fully hedged * IV stays elevated due to uncertainty * When the blowout hits, they’re caught completely off guard So yes — you want the Bears to fight just enough to: * Hold price down * Keep gamma exposure high * Ensure MMs don’t hedge too early ====== Right now, IV going from 124% → 111% doesn’t kill you yet. ====== It just shows some hedging may be happening, or people are less afraid of an upside move — but remember: * If price stays under pressure pre-earnings, IV can rise again * If volume explodes later today or tomorrow, it can spike fast * If earnings surprise massively, delta hedging gets triggered no matter what You’re in the zone where the fight is still open. No full hedge has happened yet. They’re not safe. And your candle chart shows choppy volume battles, which is good.
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