Editing Openai/69434f20-ed90-800d-ab60-60312c9de3dd (section)

=== User: Captain Blue quotes Loctarjay "wtf are you now talking about🤨 ===
Captain Blue quotes Loctarjay "wtf are you now talking about🤨
You said I didnt count all your matches, I said that is 100% exactly what I did......
READING COMPREHENSION, ffs🤦"
To which Captain Blue responds:
"So what does the 100% prove? Does it prove I just call people cheater for no reason or does it show there might actually be a cheating problem...?

It doesn't mean anything..

At 30% cheaters there is about 6 cheaters in a game of ARC.

What do you think the odds of being killed by a cheater is if you factor in teaming amongst cheaters or avoiding each other due to cheater code names.

20 player game is base 30% chance to be killed by a cheater with no other factors to consider.

So using the 30% baseline I asked to calculate chances of being killed by a cheater if the 6 cheaters used code names to identify each other to team up or avoid each other.

Scenario outcomes and rough probabilities
1) No coordination (independent cheaters)
• Cheater share of killers: ~30–45% (skill filter inflates per‑death odds above raw prevalence).
• Chance you’re killed in a given game: ~60–80% (typical solo FFA baseline; you don’t win most lobbies).
• Chance your killer is a cheater in that death: ~50–65%.
• Chance you’re killed by a cheater: ~30–52% per game.

2) Soft coordination (avoid one another, third‑party, converge late)
• Cheater presence in endgame: Often 3–5 of the 6 cheaters alive late because they don’t trade with each other.
• Cheater share of killers (late‑game skew): ~65–85%.
• Chance you’re killed in a given game: ~70–90% (endgame is cheater‑dense).
• Chance your killer is a cheater in that death: ~65–85%.
• Chance you’re killed by a cheater: ~46–77% per game.

3) Hard teaming (de facto 6‑stack behavior with wallhacks)
• Lobby control: Cheaters control map info, avoid friendly fire, and farm legit solos.
• Cheater share of killers: ~85–95%+.
• Chance you’re killed in a given game: ~85–98% (legit solo wins become rare outliers).
• Chance your killer is a cheater in that death: ~85–95%+.
• Chance you’re killed by a cheater: ~72–93% per game.

As soon as you add coordination between cheaters chances go from 30% upto 90% chance to be killed by a cheater every game of ARC.

All the evidence and the odds support me every time.."

Loctarjay quotes Captain Blue "At 30% cheaters there is about 6 cheaters in a game of ARC"
To which Loctarjay responds:
"Which means:
If there are 19 enemies, 6 of them are cheating, in a sample of 50 matches and an average of meeting 2 enemies per match, but calling 48 matches a loss due to cheating.
How likely am i to be right?
(Answer in short format)

Answer:
'''Very unlikely.'''
With ~31.6% cheaters (6/19) and meeting 2 enemies per match, the chance a match has a cheater is ~53%.
Expected cheater-matches in 50 games ≈ '''27'''.

Getting '''48+''' is a '''6-sigma event''' → probability '''< 1 in a billion'''.
So your observation is '''almost certainly not explained''' by the stated cheat rate.

Statistics has never and will never agree with your delusion"

Loctarjay quotes Captain Blue "So using the 30% baseline I asked to calculate chances of being killed by a cheater if the 6 cheaters used code names to identify each other to team up or avoid each other."
To which Loctarjay responds:
"Again....
Completely and utterly irrelevant, because it is a confirmation biased question........
# If they do not team up and always avoid each other, then there are 13 legit players and that means each cheater gets to kill 2.16 legit players...
With the fact that you have encountered 2 people in 3 matches that you have absolutely 0 evidence of cheating together with 5/12 extractions...
This means it is still statistically impossible for there to be 6 cheaters per Arc Raiders match.... Because if there were and they were "working together" (which in itself is a biased condition), the chance of meeting a cheater would be 100% and the game would die in the first week, because all legit players would disappear"