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Openai/69278a9d-71d8-800a-b431-8009c2ffdf4f
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==== 我認為,川普的新政對德國構成的是一種「結構性震蕩」 — 它不只是短期衝擊,而可能改變德國過去幾十年依賴出口、對美國市場及安全保障的經濟/政治模式。 ==== 換言之,這對德國來說,是一次「挑戰,也是抉擇」。若德國與歐洲把握機會,加快供應鏈重組、深化歐洲內部整合、推動產業升級/多元化,那麼它可能走出依賴美國的舊軌道;否則,德國與歐洲可能面臨長期經濟成長減緩、產業衰退與國際競爭力下降的困境。 如果你願意,我可以幫你找 2025 年以來(即川普再執政後)德國官方與經濟研究機構對於未來 2–3 年成長風險/機會 的預測數據,讓分析更具體。你要我幫你蒐集嗎? 相關報導歐洲改革中心Donald Trump's return to office: Ten consequencesApr 26, 2025<ref>{{cite web|title=歐洲改革中心Donald Trump's return to office: Ten consequencesApr 26, 2025|url=https://www.cer.eu/insights/donald-trumps-return-office-ten-consequences|publisher=歐洲改革中心Donald Trump's return to office: Ten consequencesApr 26, 2025|access-date=2025-11-30}}</ref>CEPRThe impact of Trump’s economic policy on the EU economyMar 26, 2025<ref>{{cite web|title=CEPRThe impact of Trump’s economic policy on the EU economyMar 26, 2025|url=https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/impact-trumps-economic-policy-eu-economy|publisher=CEPRThe impact of Trump’s economic policy on the EU economyMar 26, 2025|access-date=2025-11-30}}</ref>Council on Foreign RelationsGeopolitics of Trump Tariffs: How U.S. Trade Policy Has Shaken AlliesSep 26, 2025<ref>{{cite web|title=Council on Foreign RelationsGeopolitics of Trump Tariffs: How U.S. Trade Policy Has Shaken AlliesSep 26, 2025|url=https://www.cfr.org/article/geopolitics-trump-tariffs-how-us-trade-policy-has-shaken-allies|publisher=Council on Foreign RelationsGeopolitics of Trump Tariffs: How U.S. Trade Policy Has Shaken AlliesSep 26, 2025|access-date=2025-11-30}}</ref>Atlantic CouncilSteel meets fire: How the EU might respond to Trump’s tariffsFeb 26, 2025<ref>{{cite web|title=Atlantic CouncilSteel meets fire: How the EU might respond to Trump’s tariffsFeb 26, 2025|url=https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/steel-meets-fire-how-the-eu-might-respond-to-trumps-tariffs/|publisher=Atlantic CouncilSteel meets fire: How the EU might respond to Trump’s tariffsFeb 26, 2025|access-date=2025-11-30}}</ref>DGAPThe First 90 Days of Trump 2.0Apr 26, 2025<ref>{{cite web|title=DGAPThe First 90 Days of Trump 2.0Apr 26, 2025|url=https://dgap.org/en/research/publications/first-90-days-trump-20|publisher=DGAPThe First 90 Days of Trump 2.0Apr 26, 2025|access-date=2025-11-30}}</ref>
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