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Openai/6946e998-79f0-8007-9a65-19828450838d
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==== Let’s do a simple, pessimistic-but-not-crazy thought experiment: ==== '' Assume only FGK stars count, and they are ~10–20% of stars. Call it 0.15 × N_''. '' Let N_'' ≈ 10¹¹ stars in the Milky Way → FGK stars ≈ 1.5×10¹⁰. * Take η⊕,rocky,conservative ≈ 0.1 per FGK star after all your cuts. Then: N“good” HZ rocky planets≈1.5×1010×0.1≈1.5×109N_{\text{“good” HZ rocky planets}} \approx 1.5\times 10^{10} \times 0.1 \approx 1.5\times 10^9N“good” HZ rocky planets≈1.5×1010×0.1≈1.5×109 So even under: # Conservative HZ boundaries, # Strict radius cuts focused on truly Earth-like sizes, # A highball “hidden mini-Neptune” subtraction, # Ignoring (or heavily discounting) M dwarfs, you still land at hundreds of millions to ~a billion “geometrically and bulk-composition-wise promising” planets in the Galaxy. If you relax any of those pessimistic assumptions even a bit (include some fraction of K and M stars, allow slightly larger radii, use mid-range η⊕ instead of lower end), you go right back up into the several-billion to tens-of-billions range.
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