Editing Openai/6914efcd-d7d8-800a-85de-4212b5b63948 (section)

=== - Base case fair value ≈ 15.3p/share (with ~15% dilution built in). This assumes AW1 performs to guidance, AW2 + MeyBESS are built by 2029–2030, the company retains material interests (50–75%), and a standard small-cap WACC (11%). Ampeak Energy<ref>{{cite web|title=Ampeak Energy|url=https://ampeak.energy/sae-completes-financial-close-for-the-aw1-battery-storage-project/|publisher=Ampeak Energy|access-date=2025-11-13}}</ref> ===
* Bull case ≈ 40.5p/share (if the company preserves ownership, larger per-MWh economics, low dilution and faster execution). Ampeak Energy<ref>{{cite web|title=Ampeak Energy|url=https://ampeak.energy/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Ampeak-investor-Day-Presentation-FINAL.pdf|publisher=Ampeak Energy|access-date=2025-11-13}}</ref>
* Bear case ≈ near zero (pennies) if per-MWh economics weaken materially, ownership stakes dilute heavily and the company must raise lots of equity; net debt overwhelms equity value. Ampeak Energy<ref>{{cite web|title=Ampeak Energy|url=https://ampeak.energy/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/270190-SAE-Annual-Report-2024-CL-web.pdf|publisher=Ampeak Energy|access-date=2025-11-13}}</ref>

These results are highly sensitive to (a) per-MWh economics of larger BESS when many hours of stacked revenue are included; (b) ownership % (JV vs retained majority); (c) dilution (how much the plc must raise at the corporate level versus project financing in SPVs); and (d) the discount rate.