Editing Openai/69109937-2170-8005-9304-da49840bb5b9 (section)

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# Passive alignment is not the panacea — The report emphasises that POET’s strategy of wafer-scale passive alignment (via an optical interposer) is attractive, but they argue that in real deployment the tolerances, thermal shifts, component variability and yield risks may reduce the cost & performance benefits relative to incumbents using active alignment. For example, Crux emphasises that active alignment still gives higher coupling efficiency and compensates for laser/fibre variability. >
# Execution risk and scaling risk — Crux mentions that even if the passive alignment approach works in principle, POET must scale manufacturing, demonstrate yield, control process variation, and deal with supply-chain/components (e.g., lasers, modulators) in a highly cost-competitive environment. Without scaling, the cost advantages may not materialise as planned. (See their post mentioning cash use: “The most immediate and critical use of this cash is for ‘expanding operations’. This is about execution… building trust.”) X (formerly Twitter)<ref>{{cite web|title=X (formerly Twitter)|url=https://x.com/crux_capital_/status/1985719937176891691|publisher=X (formerly Twitter)|access-date=2025-11-10}}</ref>
# Competitive risk from incumbents and alternative technologies — Crux warns that incumbents using active alignment are not sitting still. They have decades of experience, large volumes, and can invest to push down cost. The report implies that POET’s cost advantage may be eroded or delayed. Moreover, alternative photonic packaging methods may emerge. (See discussion of passive vs active alignment in broader PIC packaging context.) magazines.angel.digital<ref>{{cite web|title=magazines.angel.digital|url=https://magazines.angel.digital/magazines/PIC_Magazine_Issue_1_2021.pdf?cacher=1733702715|publisher=magazines.angel.digital|access-date=2025-11-10}}</ref>
# Assumption risk: tolerance, variation, validity of passive alignment claims — Crux questions whether the passive alignment approach will reliably hit the required optical coupling tolerances across all modules, especially as the laser sources, waveguides, alignment trenches etc all have variation. They've flagged that the “devil is in the details”: wafer-scale passive alignment sounds good in lab settings but the factory floor is less forgiving. agoracom.com<ref>{{cite web|title=agoracom.com|url=https://agoracom.com/ir/POETTechnologies/forums/discussion/topics/814785-Crux-Capital-Report/messages/2448690|publisher=agoracom.com|access-date=2025-11-10}}</ref>